Scattered showers today through tomorrow
Scattered showers Mon and Tues.
Possible light storm early Thurs through Fri morning
Next storm will arrive early Thurs morning and may cause off and on showers over a 24 hour period. More rain is in the forecast after that. Stay tuned for updates.
Quick storm and light rain Wed night into Thurs
A light, fast-moving storm will move through the Bay Area tonight.
Convective phase of the storm today
Scattered showers and possibility of T-storms Monday, cold temps through Tuesday.
Next storm Sunday night into Monday
Rain expected from about 10pm Sunday night through 10am Monday morning. See below for wind advisory.
Lighter storm expected early Friday morning
Next storm expected around 4am PDT Friday and will be lighter than yesterday’s storm. A surface trough will pass through the Bay Area early Friday morning.
T-storm and wind gust updates
72-hour GFS forecast loop
Expect maximum impacts around 4pm Wednesday from the first storm and 4am Friday from the second (weaker) storm.
From Tropical Tidbits:
Expected impacts for Wed/Thurs storm — wind gusts, low temps, possibility of thunderstorms
Widespread, intense storm system arrives tomorrow (Wednesday) into Thursday
A widespread, intense storm system arrives tomorrow (Wed) and will last into Thursday. There will be periods of heavy rain and gusty winds (up to slightly over 1″ of rain and 30-40 mph gusts on the Peninsula), particularly between noon to 6pm PDT. After that, periods of rain will continue Friday into early next week.
Weather spotters should self-activate starting Wednesday Mar 12 @ 12 noon PDT.
NWS OPC Pacific forecast for 4pm PDT Wednesday. Note the occluded front passing through the Bay Area at that time.
From MTR AFD:
.SYNOPSIS... Issued at 357 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025 An active period of weather sets in later tonight and persists through the extended forecast. Periods of heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday morning can be expected with gusty winds up to 50 MPH at times along the coast, thunderstorms, potentially high surf and accumulating snow across the highest elevations of the Santa Lucia coastal range. Numerous rounds of light to moderate rain will move across our Friday through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 357 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025 After one more day of pleasant weather today, the forecast for the first round of rainfall remains on track. Scattered light rain will begin to move onshore over the North Bay as early as late this afternoon and gradually increase in coverage and intensity through the overnight into Wednesday. By sunrise tomorrow more intense rainfall rates out ahead of the surface front will be ongoing over portions of the North Bay. By mid-morning, the more intense rainfall will begin to impact the Bay Area and East Bay, as the surface cold front approaches the coast. Convergence along the cold front and surging southerly winds just out ahead of the cold front will produce wind gusts up to 50mph along the coast with periods of heavy rain over the Bay Area likely from late morning through early afternoon, eventually moving farther inland for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening. Max wind gusts farther inland will be in the 30-40mph range as the cold front pushes through with rainfall rates up to 0.5"/hr. Urban flooding and small landslides in the coastal ranges are possible where rainfall rates are highest. Rainfall totals for the North Bay south into the coastal ranges of Marin, Santa Cruz and Monterey County will approach 2" during the day tomorrow, with lesser amounts inland, including some rain shadowing into the South Bay. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 357 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Cooler air aloft associated with the center of the trough will eventually lead to increased lapse rates and more unstable airmass with a 10-15% chance for strong thunderstorms developing by Wednesday evening in the post frontal airmass. However, the surface trough loses some strength as it approaches land tomorrow evening with weak short wave ridging aloft at the base of the trough. Strong wind gusts up to 40mph and small hail are the primary concerns with any updrafts able to remain organized enough to produce isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms that do develop should be shortlived into the early hours of Thursday morning. Although rain chances persist over much of the area through the day Thursday, it will not be as widespread or intense as Wednesday. Expect mostly light scattered rain chances gradually shifting south through the day. The next round of rainfall begins to move onshore over the North Bay late Thursday night into early Friday morning, a weak and progressive trough axis embedded in a wide swath of northwest flow up to 70kts at times shifts east across much of California during the day Friday. Once again, scattered light rain chances linger into Saturday, but most of the area will see little to no rain on Saturday, with lingering cloud cover helping to keep temperatures 5- 10 degrees cooler than normal. Consensus for Sunday is lacking, with the NBM possibly lagging behind most current NWP guidance, and may trend drier over the next couple of updates, with potentially little to no rain on Sunday. Furthermore, the upper level trough expected for the beginning of next week has taken on a more positive tilt, which would be drier and more progressive. Keep checking for updates for the weekend and beyond as the forecast may change significantly over the coming days.