Rain today through Tuesday; Flood Watch in effect

Flood Watch in effect from January 31, 12:00 PM PST until February 2, 10:00 PM PST

Currently the most impactful rain and winds are expected to occur on Monday into Tuesday. The graphic below shows the expected precip (mm) at 4pm PST Tuesday according to GFS. This shows the strongest signal for rain over the Bay Area on the 24-hour GFS runs.

From MTR AFD:

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 302 AM PST Fri Jan 31 2025

If you`ve been sorely missing the rain for the last month, this
upcoming week is for you! Continuing from our Friday system, more
widespread, moderate rain moves in on Saturday with the heaviest
showers expected Saturday morning into the afternoon. Current
guidance suggests 1.0"-2.0" are possible across the North Bay, 0.5"-
1.5" across the rest of the Bay Area, and up to 0.5" for the Central
Coast on Saturday. A slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive
rainfall is in effect for the North Bay and portions of the Bay Area
(including the city of San Francisco) for Saturday with a marginal
risk of excessive rainfall in effect for portions of the South Bay
and Central Coast. Heading into Sunday, guidance suggests rainfall
will be lighter and more concentrated over the North Bay as the
moisture plume shifts slightly northward. As such, the WPC has
issued a day 3 marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the North Bay
on Sunday. The next round of widespread moderate showers begins
Monday as another upper level low and associated surface low
pressure system move through the Bay Area. The day four (Monday) WPC
excessive rain outlook shifts the North Bay into a slight risk of
excessive rainfall and portions of the Bay Area into a marginal
risk. By day five (Tuesday), a more widespread marginal risk of
excessive rainfall is expected across the entire Bay Area and
Central Coast. When all is said and done, from Friday to Thursday,
the North Bay will see roughly between 5"-8" of rain, the remainder
of the Bay Area will see between 3"-5", and up to 2.5" is possible
across the Central Coast. Locally higher totals are possible
throughout the elevated terrain of the Santa Cruz Mountains and the
Santa Lucia Range with overall totals between 4"-5" possible by late
next week.

Gusty winds are expected to continue through the week with NBM and
local WRF guidance highlighting Tuesday and Wednesday for
particularly windy conditions. Daytime temperatures will be in the
50s to low 60s through midweek while morning lows hover in the 40s
to low 50s. Cold mornings return again Wednesday through the end of
the forecast period, with lows to drop into the 30s again. This
combination of wet weather, gustier winds, and cold mornings may
create a setup hazardous for those without adequate heat or shelter
mid to late next week.