Rain returns Thursday into Saturday
Excerpt from recent AFD:
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1233 AM PST Tue Feb 27 2024
High pressure will prevail at the surface and aloft, with dry
conditions, northerly breezes, and cooler temperatures. A few higher
clouds may filter in at times, but overall look for plenty of
sunshine and an absence of coastal stratus after this morning.
Highs each afternoon will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, with a
few of the warmer inland places (Santa Clara and southern Salinas
Valleys) perhaps nearing the 70 degree mark. Lows will be chilly
and in the 30s (inland) to lower 40s for tonight, with mostly 40s
for tomorrow night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1233 AM PST Tue Feb 27 2024
An unsettled weather pattern will develop as a low pressure system
slowly migrates from the Gulf of Alaska towards the West Coast. The
pattern looks rather dreary with cloudier conditions, gusty winds,
and periods of moderate rainfall. Light rain should first reach the
North Bay by Thursday/Thursday night, with showers overspreading the
remainder of the area on Friday into the weekend. Most of the
rainfall looks to occur on Friday into Saturday, with showers
lingering into early Sunday. Deterministic models, their ensembles,
and the consensus blended guidance all remain in relatively good
agreement regarding rain totals, and no major changes have occurred
since the previous forecast. Storm total amounts still look to
average 1-2" for most locations, with perhaps another inch or so in
the coastal ranges. This suggests that rain-related impacts from
this system should be much more modest as compared to previous storm
systems this winter. Breezy to gusty westerly winds are also
expected with peak speeds generally between 25-35 mph. This will be
a colder system and snow levels this weekend will lower to between
2,000 feet in the North Bay to 3,000 feet for the Central Coast.
This suggests some higher elevation snowfall is possible above these
elevations. The greatest potential for this appears to be across the
Santa Lucias where cold temperatures and precipitation should best
overlap. But can`t rule out light accumulations for some of the
highest peaks in the Mayacamas and Diablo range as well, depending
upon how things play out. At this point it appears snow levels will
remain high enough such that no impacts are anticipated for any of
the passes or major travel corridors.
Colder temperatures return for early next week with frost and freeze
potential for inland areas on Sunday and Monday nights.