ACTIVATION starting Sunday night at 6pm PST on K6MPN and N6NFI Repeaters
Starting at 6pm PST Sunday night, 02/18/2024, the SF Bay Area Skywarn group will be activated. I will be monitoring the K6MPN repeater (444.500 MHz, +5.0 MHz offset, PL=100Hz CTCSS tone) and the N6NFI repeater (145.230 MHz, -0.600 MHz offset, PL=100Hz CTCSS tone) for severe weather and storm damage reports through Tuesday morning at least. Please keep in mind that we are SECONDARY users on the K6MPN repeater, which is a primary resource for the South County Amateur Radio Emergency Service (SCARES) group.
There are multiple alerts in effect for the SF Bay Area issued by the NWS WFO in Monterey, CA. See sfoskywarn.org/alerts for details. See https://poweroutage.us/area/state/california for current power outages in CA, listed by county.
Please email photos showing storm related damage or flooding to ckolovson – at – gmail.com.
Stay safe!
73, Curt Kolovson W6RQ
SF Bay Area Skywarn Coordinator
Quoting from today’s AFD:
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM PST Sat Feb 17 2024
A weakening cold front that is drawing in subtropical moisture
continues to slowly push east towards the CA coastline, resulting in
generally light rain across the region. MRMS surface radar precip
rate indicates rain rates are around 0.15" per hour or less. This
checks out given that 12 hour rainfall totals as of 1PM have been
on the light side with 0.25-0.30" across the coastal mountains
and <0.20" across the interior with less than 0.10" across rain
shadowed valleys. As a result, there have not been any flooding
reports thus far from CHP and gauges on creeks/streams are not
responding and holding steady, which is good news. However, the
rain isn`t over yet and an additional 0.15-0.75" is expected
through the evening today with locally higher rain rates possible
as the front gets closer, offering better forcing. But still
expecting minor impacts from today`s system (system #1).
As system #1 weakens and exits the Bay Area and Central Coast this
evening, a break in the rain and wind is still expected overnight
through early Sunday morning. This break will not last long with
system #2, a deep Pacific low, approaches the CA coastline and will
start impacting our region by Sunday mid-morning. The Flood Watch
that encompasses the entire forecast area is set to start at 10 AM
Sunday.
By tomorrow mid-morning, the warm front will approach the region,
bringing warm, stratiform rainfall. Winds will start to increase
as well as a southerly low level jet approaches the coastline,
bringing gusts of 30 to 45 mph (stronger near the coast and at
higher elevations). After the warm front passes sometime tomorrow
afternoon- evening, calmer conditions may briefly prevail with
diminishing winds and rain activity. However, heavier, more
convective rain showers and persistently strong southerly winds
will be quickly develop as the cold front inches closer to the
coastline late Sunday into Monday.
Thunderstorms continue to look increasingly probable Sunday
overnight through much of Monday as colder air aloft moves in,
destabilizing the atmosphere. Heavier rain, locally gusty winds,
small hail, and lightning are all hazards associated with
potential thunderstorms that may develop. Locally heavier rain
rates have the potential to create more flash flooding concerns.
While flooding impacts will be minor at most today, the soils have
become saturated which will further exacerbate flooding concerns
as system #2 rolls through tomorrow-Mon. Tomorrow we will likely
see more reports of roadway flooding, downed trees, and power
outages. Use caution and if able, probably best to stay at home to
avoid problems on the roads.