Slight shift in timing of heavy rain and wind gusts to late Mon through Tues

The Mon/Tues storm forecast for the Greater Bay Area remains on track, with a slight shift to a later onset of heavy rain and gusty winds to later Mon night and lasting through Tuesday.

Keep track of current MTR-issued alerts: https://www.weather.gov/mtr/

This graphic shows the 6-hour precip forecast with increased rain intensity moving into the Greater Bay Area by approx 10pm Mon night.

From MTR AFD:

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 248 AM PST Sun Feb 2 2025

Light showers continue Sunday into Monday with the next round of
higher intensity rain returning late Monday morning/Monday
afternoon. Taking a look at the synoptic pattern, an upper level
trough off of the PNW and an upper level ridge over southern CA have
in part kept our moisture plume tighter and pushed farther north
this weekend. By Monday, the upper level trough will deepen over the
PNW, pushing farther into northern CA, and ridging over southern CA
will start to shift eastward. This will allow for the moisture plume
to widen and shift southwards again late Monday morning/Monday
afternoon with precipitable water values generally increasing to
greater than 1" across the region. At the same time, the stationary
front over the North Bay will give way to a more progressive cold
front that will move through the Bay Area Monday into Tuesday. Rain
will start to pick up in intensity by mid to late Monday morning
with the initial heaviest rain located in the North Bay. High
resolution models are starting to show precipitation lingering over
the Bay Area (south of the North Bay) and Santa Cruz Mountains
overnight Monday through Tuesday morning. Totals have trended
upwards Monday into Tuesday with an additional 3"-4" possible across
the North Bay, 2"-3" across the rest of the Bay Area, and 1"-3"
across the Central Coast. Locally higher totals (4"+) are possible
in areas where upsloping is favored (North Bay and coastal
mountains). A slight chance (<10%) of thunderstorms continues to be
monitored for Tuesday morning but the probability has been trending
downwards recently.

Wet weather will then continue Wednesday through the end of the week
as troughing persists over the West Coast. Late week rain totals
will be lower, however, with most areas seeing less than 1" of
additional rain. The exception, again, will be where upsloping is
favored within the coastal mountains where totals will be between 1"-
2". This second system will be colder with morning lows expected to
drop into the mid 30s to low 40s across the region. The combination
of damp weather and cooler temperatures may create conditions that
are particularly hazardous for people without access to adequate heat
or shelter.

It is worth noting that the WPC maintains a slight to marginal risk
of excessive rainfall for the Bay Area and portions of the Central
Coast through Tuesday and again on Thursday. Flooding concerns will
remain elevated through the week as our initial rainfall from Friday
to Saturday have caused soils to saturate. This will lead to
increased surface runoff and is likely to lead to additional flood
related products as we move through our next two rounds of wet
weather. In addition, gusty winds are likely to persist for coastal
areas and elevated terrain Monday through Wednesday with the
strongest gusts likely to develop ahead of/around the time of cold
frontal passage Monday into Tuesday. This may result in a few trees
being knocked over and increased potential for power outages to
occur. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and stay
up to date on the forecast as we move through the upcoming week.