Weaker storm will bring more rain Thurs and Thurs night

From Tropical Tidbits:

From MTR AFD:

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 AM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

Highlights for the morning update: N Bay Valley Frost Adv allowed
to expire, ongoing Flood Warnings in Sonoma continue, drier today.

A chilly start to the day as temperatures plummeted into the lower
30s across some of the interior valleys, especially N and E Bay.
In addition to chilly temps, patchy dense fog also impacted the N
Bay valleys. Makes sense really, ample low level moisture from
yesterday`s rains, weaker winds, and some clearing overnight.
Temperatures fortunately are on the upswing so the Frost Adv was
allowed to expire. Fog is also beginning to dissipate.

Today will be much drier than yesterday. However, KMUX still
remains in precip mode. Colder air with marginal instability
today will lead to some widely scattered showers, especially the
N Bay. Despite the drier conditions and low chance for precip
flooding issues will remain as streams/creeks/rivers water levels
remain elevated.

Morning update will be issues shortly to address potential
Frost/Freeze products for tonight as temperatures will plummet to
critical levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1209 AM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

Colder and drier air has settled in following yesterday`s cold
front. The satellite shows some cumulus clouds over the water, but
any showers are expected to be brief. The drier air mass has
precipitable water values of 50-75% of normal. Overall today will
be a reprieve between 2 systems. The colder air mass will be
noticeable, however. The current temperatures are roughly 10
degrees colder than 24 hours ago and a frost advisory is in effect
for the North Bay Valleys this morning. More frost advisories may
be needed tonight, but the increasing cloud cover ahead of
Thursday`s system will suppress radiational cooling and will
likely keep the region a degree or two warmer than this morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1209 AM PST Wed Feb 5 2025

By Thursday morning another plume of moisture will reach the
coast as a surface low pressure system develops offshore. There is
an outside chance for thunderstorms off the coast Thursday
afternoon. Compared to the atmospheric river on Tuesday, this
system will be much weaker in terms of both wind and rain.
Rainfall amounts are generally expected to be 0.25-1.25". The wind
will still be noticeable, with SW winds 10-20 mph and gusts up to
35 mph Thursday evening. This system will also bring a
reinforcing shot of colder air as it departs. The 1000-500 mb
thickness will fall to around 5,400 m by Friday. In fact, the snow
levels will drop to around 3,000 ft and there`s a chance some of
the higher mountains will get a few flakes. Otherwise Friday will
be a transition day as the skies gradually clear and the drier
ridging pattern stabilizes.

By the weekend, the only real hazard becomes cold morning
temperatures. Saturday morning will start roughly 10 degrees
colder than Friday morning. Many inland areas will drop into the
low 30s, and widespread frost advisories are expected. Afternoon
highs will only climb into the mid to upper 50s, so it will feel
chilly all day, although there will be ample sunshine. The ridging
pattern stabilizes through mid week, and the weather will be
pretty consistent. The next round of rain looks to arrive around
Wednesday.

&&