Showers starting this morning, followed by possible thunderstorms this afternoon, tonight, and lingering into Friday. Good chance of thunderstorms and small hail due to unstable conditions. Colder than normal temps.

---

11pm PDT Wed Apr 3. Low pressure system and associated cold front heading our way.

5pm PDT Thur Apr 4. The front will have passed and the low will be right off our coast. As it continues to move south and then east, it will set up a similar situation to what we had last Saturday. Stay safe!!

Starting at 5pm PDT Friday night, 03/29/2024, the SF Bay Area Skywarn group will be activated. I will be monitoring the K6MPN repeater (444.500 MHz, +5.0 MHz offset, PL=100Hz CTCSS tone) and the N6NFI repeater (145.230 MHz, -0.600 MHz offset, PL=100Hz CTCSS tone) for severe weather and storm damage reports. Please keep in mind that we are SECONDARY users on the K6MPN repeater, which is a primary resource for the South County Amateur Radio Emergency Service (SCARES) group.

There are multiple alerts in effect for the SF Bay Area issued by the NWS WFO in Monterey, CA. See sfoskywarn.org/alerts for details. See https://poweroutage.us/area/state/california for current power outages in CA, listed by county.

Please email photos showing storm related damage or flooding to ckolovson – at – gmail.com.

Stay safe!
73, Curt Kolovson W6RQ
SF Bay Area Skywarn Coordinator

Key Points:
* Impactful weather system today into Saturday
* Moderate wind and water impacts anticipated
* Strong wind gusts may cause tree and power line damage
* Minor flooding potential from locally heavy rainfall
* Isolated thunderstorms with lightning and small hail
* Peak impacts this afternoon into Saturday evening

---

---

5pm PDT Friday Mar 29 forecast:

---

00Z Thurs Mar 28 (5pm PDT Wed Mar 27) Pacific forecast.

---

00Z Thurs Mar 28 (5pm PDT Wed Mar 27) Pacific forecast:

12Z Fri Mar 29 (5am PDT Fri Mar 29) Pacific Forecast. Looks like the makings of an impactful storm.

The next storm is currently expected to arrive Wed morning. A more intense storm system may be coming by late in the week or the weekend.

---

NWS OPC forecast for 00Z Sun Mar 24 (5pm PDT Sat Mar 23). Front has passed. A series of minor surface troughs will be passing through, which could bring some isolated locally heavy winds, t-storms, and small hail.

---

12Z Mar 23 (5am PDT Mar 23) surface analysis shows surface trough that has already passed through. This was the minor trough of concern. Others may follow, such as the approaching one shown in the 00Z Mar 24 forecast above.

---

18Z Mar 23 (11am PDT Mar 23) sfc analysis:

---

NWS OPC Forecast valid 00Z Sat 3/23 (5pm PDT Fri 3/22). Cold front is passing through Bay Area, immediately followed by low pressure system and associated trough that will bring convective lifting and the possibility of thunder storms. This is not expected to be a big rainmaker overall, but there is a possibility of locally heavy rain, moderate to high winds, small hail, and some thunder and lightning.

Possibility of t-storms, especially on Saturday.

---

Forecast for 00Z Saturday (5pm PDT Friday). The cold front is expected to pass through the Bay Area late Friday, with the trough behind it. Note the large storm in the mid-Pacific that may impact us by the middle of next week.

New storm system arrives on Friday.

Surface map forecast for 12Z (5am PDT) Friday Mar 22. Source: NWS Ocean Prediction Center (OPC):